Futures Trading is a zero sum game.
Every contract that is opened has a offsetting Long and Short position - So somebody's going to win, and it's going to be at the expense at the guy on the other side of your bet. It is said that in the Futures game only about 10% of the players are winners which means the remaining 90% are there for chip extraction purposes.
As we know that price movement behaves randomly, and over the same time interval is just as likely to go up or down by similar increments, then there must be something else outside of price behavior that is driving the 10/90 winner to loser ratio.
It's public record that Banks and other Commercial Interests have insider information. It is also fact that the banksters collude to manipulate price on all kinds of markets in order to fleece "Muppets" (their clients) as well as other market participants. How else can you explain Wall St trading desks posting daily profits for an entire Quarter or longer without losing once? Not even 1 day?! So they make billions in revenues, and then pay out (pay off?) a few million in fines to the regulators. Sounds like a pretty good business model, but unfortunately you & I aren't given this License to Steal, so we have to do it another way.
In addition to their Market Rigging activities, they pretty much own the government and the regulatory agencies, so they can leverage up and gamble with impunity reaping all of the rewards on their 1,000 times Levered Bets. But when they bet wrong, and it's finally time for them to take their medicine, they simply go to the FED for a bailout. When the FED bails them out though, it's the citizens of this country who foot the bill - You can't create trillions out of thin air and hand it to the banks without consequence - The result is a slow and gradual debasing of the dollar which has steadily & reliability continued, without pause for the last 100+ years - to the tune of 98% loss of USD purchasing power.
OK - so the banks are essentially the House at the casino, & you are the marks that are there to be fleeced. They have unlimited capital, they change the rules as they see fit, they cheat & steal, and they pay off the government and regulators a very small % of their "winnings" to keep the racket going.
But the thing is, they need one more critical component in order to perpetuate the scam. They need you! They need Muppets to continue walking into the casino, who dream and fantasize big; and in an attempt to fulfill those fantasies, bet recklessly and with extreme leverage.
Futures are leveraged instruments with a finite life. Every 30,60 or 90 days you have to close out your bets and make new ones - we are continually tallying the wins and losses. So when you are on the clock, and then betting with maximum leverage against opponents who have unlimited capital and are armed to the teeth, it's then easy to understand how a statistical coin flip proposition turns into a 90-10 beat-down in the house's favor.
Bankster ready to score again... That makes it 105 for them, and zero for you?
In order to avoid being another sad statistic, you have to understand that the only way to win consistently in any betting game, is through a detailed, strict and disciplined approach to your betting.
Just like a quarterback who steps back in the pocket in the face of fearsome pressure upfront, and steadily goes through his progressions, so must you. But a QB would never be able to do this unless he knew what he was going to do before the snap.
Sometimes you go to your first option, other times you progress through your reads and decide to dump it off, other times you throw it away, while sometimes the other team wins and you take the sack. As long as you don't fumble and literally hand chips to your opponent, then you can keep moving on to the next down, with another opportunity to make a positive play.
You must operate the same way. You know what your starting bet is, when to make that bet, when to close out for a profit or to preserve chips, when to add additional bets, and how to hedge against loss. If Futures prices offer you a 50/50 chance at winning, which they do if you only allow yourself enough chances, then your goal becomes to mitigate the 50% of the time losses, and then participating during the 50% time that you are right.
So to repeat, what separates the winners and losers in gambling, is a Detailed, Strict, and Disciplined betting style. This chapter will focus on this topic, and if you make this your number one priority within your trading program, then you will have a great chance of sitting beside the banksters in the winners circle.