The Greenback has been on a tear since the April 17 low, rallying over 9%  and creating a negative headwind across the commodity complex.  While we were anticipating a top in mid July @ the 95 level, prices broke out above that major resistance level, driven by EM currency … [Read more...]

Coffee Producers and Commercials have been extremely long throughout most of 2018.  What historically has been a reliable indicator to position long with 70 percentile moves 20 days forward of 5:2 in bulls favor, has seen the complete opposite this year with prices posting odds … [Read more...]

As Precious Metals continued to sink last week we saw expected further Fund shorting and Commercial buying. On a 18month Relative Basis Comms now score 100% and Funds are max bearish at 0%. The 5yr score is 99% for Comms and 0% for Funds - so we are at true extremes in … [Read more...]

At the end of July we highlighted the bearish odds aligning against further rallies in Wheat. We noted however, not to short into the extreme price strength, but instead to wait for a reversal back through 540. 10 days later, we see more of the same with Wheat moving another … [Read more...]

WTI is suffering a nasty sell-off today, and our short alert this morning for premium members, to short a breakdown of the weekly pivot low, and 4day adaptive channel low @ 68.50 is nicely in the green. We always hedge futures positions, especially when shorting oil, so the … [Read more...]